Changing Order






Strategic Analysis & Crisis response
Iran · Regional Escalation

After Khamenei: What the Strikes on Iran Mean for Regional Order

The killing of Ali Khamenei marks a rupture, not just an escalation. Iran's deterrence architecture — built over four decades through proxy networks, nuclear ambiguity, and strategic patience — has been dismantled faster than anyone projected. What comes next is an open competition over what fills the void.

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Iran · Power Transition
Who Governs Iran Now? The IRGC, the Succession Question, and the Risk of Fragmentation
The IRGC has the guns. But it has never governed alone, and the institutional architecture that gave it legitimacy no longer exists. Three scenarios for what comes next.
Scenario Analysis 3 Mar 2026
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Region · Theme
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Region · Theme
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Global Situation Map
Active monitoring — hover a hotspot to view current assessment
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Iran
US-Israel strikes ongoing. Khamenei killed 1 March. Counter-strikes on Gulf bases reported.
Critical
Sudan
SAF–RSF conflict continuing. Humanitarian access severely limited across Darfur.
Critical
Iraq
Shia militia mobilization following Iran strikes. US bases on heightened alert.
High
Red Sea / Yemen
Houthi posture uncertain post-Khamenei. Shipping risk remains elevated.
High
Burkina Faso
Junta restricts NGO access. Displacement accelerating in nord and est regions.
Elevated
DRC — East
M23 consolidating position. MONUSCO withdrawal leaves security vacuum in North Kivu.
Elevated
Critical
High
Elevated
Updated 8 March 2026
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